Universal

Box-office analyst Jeff Bock has a theory about Sacha Baron Cohen's new comedy: "Brüno is going to teach a lot of people about gay sex whether they want to know or not."

And you know what that'll mean to ticket sales...

"If it doesn't do what Borat does, or come close to the $40 million mark," Bock says, "I'd be surprised."

Opening Friday, Brüno is Baron Cohen's follow-up to 2006's Borat, the $18 million could-be cult movie that instead became a $262 million worldwide blockbuster.

Universal Pictures, which placed a $42.5 million bet on Baron Cohen and Brüno, is, as is a studio's right, downplaying the Borat connection, tamping down expectations and stressing the movie's, well, uniqueness.

"It's hard to project for a movie like Brüno," says Nikki Rocco, Universal's president of domestic distribution. "You can't really use Borat for a comp[arable] for this. This is something so totally different, for me there is no comp to use."

While few outside Universal aren't going to compare Brüno to Borat, which debuted to an eye-popping $26.5 million, fewer would seem to disagree that Brüno is very different than its Kazakhstani counterpart, if not most Hollywood-backed productions.

In his Brüno review for Variety, critic Todd McCarthy counted "three dildos, one gyrating, talking penis, [and one] anal bleaching." Significantly, McCarthy also noted 61 laughs and predicted "some potent B.O. figures, at least at first." 

Exhibitor Relations' Bock concurs. On both box-office observations.

"[Baron Cohen is] really pushing the envelope on this one—there's no doubt about it, this burns the envelope up," Bock says. "That's why I think $40 million is not out of the question—until word gets out how many penises are on the screen."

Universal is ready for the quick strike, blasting Brüno onto 2,755 screens. By comparison, Borat debuted at 837 theaters.

"Borat was released at a different time," Rocco says. "We're in the heart of summer playtime. We always planned to open in this time frame, and we always planned to open as a broad comedy."

So far, so good. Brüno opened Wednesday in Australia to "terrific" business, Rocco says.

The big push makes sense to Bock who thinks after Friday's and Saturday's initial business, Brüno may have trouble playing to stateside audiences who don't live along a coastline. The movie itself spends a lot of time on landlocked Bible Belt folks interacting with Baron Cohen's very out-there Austrian reporter.

Rocco, for one, doesn't think Brüno has been a tougher sell than Borat, which was released by Fox and had its own challenges—namely, a then-largely unknown star.

"I have to look at where we need to be," Rocco says. "If the film opens in the $20 million range or above, we are in such a great position."