What's So Scary About Jay Leno at 10 p.m.?
Paul Drinkwater/NBC
Why is Jay Leno being beaned by his hometown? Why will NBC miss ER's farewell more than you? And, where is it written that Lifetime's fans can stand to see only so many bare male torsos?
The answers—and more questions—in this week's TV ratings pop quiz:
1. What's going on with Leno and Boston? To recap and update, NBC's Boston affiliate said last week it intended to run a local newscast at 10 p.m. weeknights come fall, rather than Leno's new show. NBC's parent company responded by threatening not to allow WHDH-TV to air any of NBC's low-rated programs (plus Sunday Night Football). For now, the station's website no longer makes note of its Leno plan, and Broadcasting & Cable says other affiliates are sitting tight. (And, yes, by the way, we know Leno hails from Andover, Mass., not Boston, but close enough.)
2. What's so potentially scary for a station about Leno at 10 p.m. anyway? Through Sunday, NBC's Monday-Friday 10 p.m. winter slate of Medium, Law & Order: SVU, Law & Order, the finale-boosted ER and Dateline NBC was averaging 7.6 million viewers and a 2.6 rating among all-important 18-to-49-year-old viewers. TVbytheNumbers.com's Robert Seidman, for one, doesn't think there's "even a reasonable expectation" that Leno, currently averaging 5.2 million viewers and a 1.4 18-49 rating at 11:35 p.m., can match those numbers in prime time's bigger pool—a thought he concedes may not scare or surprise NBC in the least. "Probably from NBC's perspective," Seidman says, "I don't think [Leno] needs to do a 2.0 18-49, and if it does a 1.4-1.5 consistently I think NBC will be delighted." Especially given the cost savings: The Leno show reputedly will boast a $2 million weekly budget versus $3 million for a single hour of scripted television.
3. So what might scare NBC? Nobody—the press, the public, the affiliates—gives the prime-time Leno idea credit as being novel, thrifty or a way to avoid reruns. "Come September, if it's doing worse than their [previous] average," Seidman says, "that's going to be the headlines…But I have to think NBC is expecting that."
4. Would NBC be in its current straits if ER could say goodbye every single week? No. Last week's two-hour finale was TV's top-rated scripted show among adults 18-49, the latest Nielsen weekly rankings show. In total viewers, it ranked sixth with 16.4 million, running behind Tuesday's American Idol (24.4 million), Wednesday's Idol (24.3 million), Monday's Dancing With the Stars (20.5 million), NCIS (17.2 million) and The Mentalist (17 million).
5. Is NCIS on TV too much? The numbers say no. Aside from a Top 5 broadcast finish, its reruns on USA accounted for three of last week's five most-watched cable shows.
6. Is Bill O'Reilly President Obama's biggest fan? He should be. The loud opposition's O'Reilly Factor was cable's most watched prime-time show (3.9 million for Wednesday's edition) after pro wrestling.
7. What is the Law of Diminishing Poster Returns? The more consecutive weeks you hype Nora Roberts-inspired TV movies with shirtless hunks, the fewer viewers you entice. Lifetime's ode to the male torso has gone from 4.5 million viewers for Eddie Cibrian's Northern Lights to 3.8 million for Jerry O'Connell's Midnight Bayou to 3.3 million for Ivan Sergei's High Noon. Up next: Jason Lewis' abs in Tribute.
8. A chance to say goodbye to Natasha Richardson, or a way to fondly remember the pre-party-banned Lindsay Lohan? Whatever the motivation, the umpteenth Disney Channel offering of 1998's The Parent Trap (3.7 million) was cable's No. 4 prime-time show. (Mr. Sergei's chest would like to point out his owner's vehicle was in cable's Top 15.)
9. What's the good news about Kings? While getting shoved from Sunday to Saturday following your 86th-place finish (3.6 million) is like getting canceled, the show hasn't officially been canceled. Yet.



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